CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-02-16T13:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-02-16T13:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44685/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2026-02-16T13:23Z. This CME is also seen as a faint, partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is most likely a large eruption best seen in SDO AIA 171 and SDO AIA 304 starting around 2026-02-16T12:18Z spanning S30E15 to S10W05. Subsequent dimming and an EUV wave can also be seen in SDO AIA 193. There is no clear arrival signature in solar wind on 2026-02-18 and 19. (Please note that there is a very weak/unclear CME arrival signature on 2026-02-20 (starting around 2026-02-20T22:35Z), with no accompanying increase in the solar wind speed, which is possibly a glancing blow from the the slower CME: 2026-02-16T14:08Z).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-19T00:52Z (-8.22h, +4.89h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
*** LASCO ***
Time of Launch: 2026/02/16 13:15Z
Plane of Sky 1: 01:00Z; 31.5Rsun; Halo Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 02:00Z; 31.5Rsun; Halo Direction
POS Difference: 1:00
POS Midpoint: 01:30Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:15

Numeric View/Impact Type: +4
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~4.87
Travel Time: ~4.87 * 12:15 = 59:37

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2026-02-19T00:52Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2026/02/17 18:50Z
Lead Time: 29.82 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2026-02-17T19:03Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy